Banking – In-depth – [NEUTRAL] – 2H25 Outlook: Pragmatic progressive enhancement

In 2H25, the banking industry could grow robust, driven by 1) accelerated credit expansion (16% in 2025 vs 15% in 2024), 2) disciplined operating expense management, and 3) controlled non-performing loans. The banking industry’s NIM could improve quarterly despite being lower year-over-year, but the thinner loan loss reserve could raise concerns about strengthening buffer reserves. The banking industry could maintain solid PBT growth in 2025 (equal to or slightly below plan), compared to the aggregated 2025 target of 16%yoy (22 banks).