Tariff clouds loom over solid performance

Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in April remains broadly positive, with industrial production and trade indicators continuing to perform well. However, this may represent only a calm before the storm, as early signs of an FDI slowdown and softening in industrial production momentum have emerged. Concerns are mounting that both production and exports may weaken in the coming months amid the looming implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the government’s ambitious economic targets are likely to face mounting headwinds, making domestic drivers—particularly infrastructure investment and public spending—more critical in sustaining growth. Encouragingly, inflation remains under control, offering room for additional policy support in the months ahead.