Growth holds, but storm clouds gather

Vietnam’s macro picture in May remained broadly positive, with IIP and FDI continuing to show strong performance, and inflation staying under control. However, momentum in manufacturing is softening, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pace. As the tariff decision deadline draws near, trade uncertainties are intensifying, especially with front-loaded U.S. orders tapering off and inventories already high. Both exports and imports are expected to slow, and the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and key partners will play a decisive role in shaping Vietnam’s external outlook going forward.