DCM – Brief – [NONRATED] – 3Q25: NPAT surged on higher ASPs and lower input costs

3Q25: production activities soften slightly, but high ASPs and lower input gas price pushed growth

DCM recorded consolidated revenue of VND2,988bn in 3Q25 (+13% yoy). Both gross profit and NPAT posted strong growth, reaching VND657bn (+75% yoy) and VND328bn (+172% yoy), respectively. The surge was mainly driven by (1) higher Urea average selling prices (ASPs) as grobal prices pegged higher yoy and (2) lower input gas costs amid falling oil prices that offset (3) weaker production volume.

• Urea: volume slightly declined by 2% yoy to 125 thousand tonnes despite a low base in 3Q24 due to maintenance. However, ASP rose 17% yoy and input gas cost fell, boosting revenue by 14% and gross profit by a staggering 172% yoy to VND564bn. As a consequence, Urea is both the key driver for DCM’s revenue and NPAT growth.
• NPK: volume dropped 14% yoy to 34 thousand tonnes, while ASP fell 8% yoy. As a result, revenue and gross profit declined by 22% and 9% yoy, to VND480bn and VND108bn, respectively.
• Trading fertilizers: volume surged 78% yoy to 138 thousand tonnes, while GPM remained stable at 5.5%. Due to a high base in 3Q24, gross profit declined 22% yoy to VND62bn. Despite supporting top-line expansion, trading activities add little to earnings growth due to their low margins.

4Q25F: sustaining growth amid favorable crack spreads

• In 4Q25F, we expect Urea ASPs to remain relatively higher yoy, while lower input gas costs should continue to support NPAT growth. However, the growth effect of Urea ASPs could end from 1Q26F if the global Urea prices continue to stabilize at the current level.

We also note that domestic Urea prices showed weakening signs from mid-Sep, which could be a downside risk for DCM, as the stock remained sensitive