PLX – Earnings review – [HOLD] – 1Q26: Oil price volatility hit hard

Facts: Oil price volatility hit hard

1Q26 revenue reached VND98.7tn (+45% yoy, -2.1% qoq, ~110% of KIS forecast). The strong growth reflects (1) higher volumes: domestic (+20% yoy, +13.4% qoq, reaching 3.25mn tons) and international trading (estimated +15–35%); and (2) higher refined product prices in Asia amid the Gulf conflict.

Operating profit came in at -VND621bn (-753% yoy, -227% qoq), corresponding to an operating margin of -0.63% (-0.77%p yoy, -1.23%p qoq). Weak profitability was mainly due to:

• Oil price volatility during the conflict, leading to inventory losses and loss sales due to import-export price mismatches, although these risks eased somewhat after authorities implemented a more flexible pricing mechanism from March 7.
• In 1Q26, PLX recorded a significant inventory provision of VND6.5tn (~18% of inventory cost, vs. a typical range of 0.5–2%). We believe this was mainly driven by a sharp drop in Singapore Diesel prices from USD220–230/bbl to ~USD190/bbl (-18%) during the first week of April. Under the prudence principle, we believe PLX has ground to front-load this provisioning into 1Q26 instead of 2Q26.
• Strong domestic sales growth (+20% yoy) increased inventory levels, thereby raising inventory risk and fixed costs associated with the distribution network.

Net financial income recorded a loss of VND26bn (vs. a gain of VND128bn in 1Q25), adding further pressure on earnings. As a result, NPAT came in at -VND662bn (-414% yoy, -197% qoq).

Pros & cons: negative impacts to remain

We concern about PLX’s earnings outlook in the coming quarters, as the Gulf conflict continues to disrupt refined product supply in Asia and drive significant price volatility. In early May, Singapore Diesel prices declined further from USD195/bbl to USD160/bbl (-18%), increasing the risk of further inventory losses for PLX. Additionally, in a scenario where peace is restored and oil prices decline sharply, PLX’s earnings could also be materially impacted.

Action: HOLD

We maintain HOLD recommendation for PLX, as the share price has reached our target price