QTP – Earnings review – [BUY] – 3Q25: Earnings dented by margin pressure

In 3Q25F, revenue is estimated at VND2,056bn (-14% yoy) due to an estimated 28% yoy decline in average selling price, despite production increasing 20% yoy to 1,620mn kWh, as national electricity consumption rose 7.5% yoy in 3Q25. Gross profit is estimated at VND64bn (-43% yoy), corresponding to a gross margin (GM) of 3.1% (-1.6%p yoy) as plant efficiency declined and electricity prices fell more sharply than coal prices (VND2.1mn/ton; -14% yoy). As a result, NPAT sharply fell to VND33bn (-57% yoy, figure 4), mainly due to the contraction in GM mentioned above, despite strong support from financial income, which surged to VND8bn (up 8x yoy).