Transitioning into the Era of National Rise

Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to moderate in 3Q25 as both global and domestic conditions become less favorable. Specifically, we forecast real GDP to grow by 6.5% YoY in 3Q25, down 1.5 ppts from the previous quarter. On the external front, higher U.S. tariffs may dampen import demand despite Vietnam’s relative advantage from early trade agreements, while the decline in new export orders suggests weakening momentum. On the domestic front, the economy is undergoing a transitional phase as major structural reforms take effect. While these policies are anticipated to yield long-term gains, short-term adjustments may lead to temporary disruptions in production and investment activities.