Power – In-depth – [NEUTRAL] – 2H25 Outlook: The dawn of green energy

Based on the growth rates in 1Q25 and 2024, we estimate national power consumption in 2H25F under two scenarios: Scenario 1 (+3.9% yoy) & Scenario 2 (+8% yoy).

• Hydropower: 2H25F: Output is projected at 60.3bn kWh (-4% yoy, +69% qoq) under both scenarios, CF reach 57% (-4.4%p yoy). The main reason from (1) transition to the neutral phase. And (2) according to historical data, in the period from the El-Niño to Neutral, CF of hydropower plants could rose ~2-3%. (3) Additional 288MW capacity from some new hydropower projects. As a result, based on these assumptions, we estimate that the gross margin’s hydropower group could record a slightly decline in 2H25F. Conversely, GM could improve when a 5% growth in hydropower output could help offset the decline of the FMP prices.
• Coal-fired power: Output is estimated at 68-70bn kWh (+6-9% yoy). CF is projected to stay at 52-54% (+2 – 4%p yoy) in 2H25F as (i) nationwide electricity consumption is forecast to grow based on scenario 1 (+3.9% yoy) and scenario 2 (+8% yoy). (ii) An additional 660MW from the Vung Ang II BOT project, Which COD in October – 2025. Additionally, coal prices in 2H25F are expected to rise slightly, driven by TKV’s move to increase the share of blended coal to 52% (+2p yoy), while the remaining 48% is sourced from imports. Therefore, we estimate that the GM’s coal-fired power may slightly decline in 2H25F. Conversely, GM could improve when a 14% growth in output in 2H25F.
• Gas-fired power: Output is estimated at 12.3-15bn kWh (+15-41% yoy), CF growth at 36-43%, up 3-10%p yoy. Key growth drivers in 2H25F, in which as (a) Nhon Trach 3 (Aug-25) & Nhon Trach 4 (Nov-25) coming online. (b) BOT Phu My 2.2 & Phu My 3 have expired contract; (4) EVN increases pressure to increase capacity from renewable sources (70 MW). In addition, gas prices remain high due to declining domestic supply, estimated to increase 5% yoy in 2H25F. From there, we estimate that the GM of the gas-fired power groups could record decline in 2H25F. Besides, we foreast that NT3 & 4 could record NPAT of approximately -VND200bn when they commence operations in 2H25F.
• Renewable energy: Output expected at 22.2-22.4bn kWh, +23% yoy, CF reach 21% rose 4%p yoy, in which wind power’s output increased by +19-22% yoy and solar power is estimated to rise by +24% yoy as an additional 70 MW expected from 85 transitional renewable projects.