GEG – Earnings Review – [HOLD] – 4Q25: Profit growth amplified by a low base

Revenue reached VND590bn (+6% yoy, equivalent to 98% of KIS’s forecast, figure 1), with growth mainly driven by the wind power segment (+48% yoy). Total production amounted to 344mn kWh (+2% yoy, figure 2). Segment details are as follows:

• Hydropower: Revenue reached VND208bn (+63% yoy), supported by production of 154mn kWh (+19% yoy), driven by the neutral phase extending through the quarter, which lifted reservoir inflows by 100% yoy in 4Q25 (figure 4), alongside an improvement in average selling prices.
• Solar power: Revenue declined to VND143bn (-16% yoy), mainly due to lower production of 66mn kWh (-13% yoy) amid erratic weather conditions, while electricity prices improved as exchange rate fluctuations remained at elevated levels
• Wind power: Revenue reached VND252bn (+48% yoy), driven by (i) higher electricity selling prices from Tan Phu Dong 1 and other projects; and (ii) the recognition of electricity revenue and profit from tower A7 (VPL project), despite production declining to 124mn kWh (-8% yoy).

As a result, gross profit and NPAT were recorded at VND293bn (+42% yoy, 124% of KIS’s forecast, figure 5) and VND96bn (+676% yoy, 168% of KIS’s forecast, figure 6), respectively. This was driven by (1) gross margin expansion to 50.5%, up 13.4%p yoy; (2) a low base in 4Q24; and (3) a reduction in financial expenses of approximately VND27bn (-17% yoy), mainly due to lower provisioning for investments in subsidiaries and associates, despite (4) G&A expenses surging to VND80bn (+169% yoy).