GAS – Earnings Review – [BUY] – 3Q25: Net profit is on par with forecast

Facts: revenue widened but profit flatted

GAS posted 3Q25 revenue of VND35.7tn (+41% yoy, +19% qoq), exceeding our forecast by 29%, mainly thanks to stronger LPG international trading activities and larger LNG revenue. LPG revenue reached VND21.5tn (+25% yoy, ~149% of our forecast).

Gross profit came in at VND4.1tn (-2% yoy, -17% qoq, ~111% of our forecast). The consolidated GPM fell to 11.5% due to dilution effects from the LPG segment, which recorded a thin margin of only 3.2% in 3Q25. Meanwhile, the GPM of the dry gas and LNG remained stable at 21.2%.

SG&A expenses recorded VND1.2tn, down 8% yoy. Adjusting for the VND430bn provision for bad debts in 3Q24, SG&A would have actually risen by about 91% yoy. NPAT reached VND2.6tn (+1% yoy, -46% qoq, ~109% of our forecast).

Pros & cons: prospect driven by LNG and provision absence

Regarding the Nhon Trach 3&4 LNG power projects, the latest update from POW (mid-October 2025) indicated 99.3% EPC completion, with commercial operations expected in November and December 2025, respectively. We therefore expect GAS to see strong LNG segment growth beginning in 2026.

In 4Q25F, we expect GAS’s business results to remain stable, with single-digit NPAT growth mainly driven by the absence of provisions (vs. a VND667bn provision in 4Q24).

Action: BUY with the TP of VND79,300

We maintain a BUY rating (TP: VND79,300; +26% upside) for GAS stock for mid and long-term investment strategies. In the short term, we note the risk that falling global oil prices amid oversupply could negatively impact GAS’s profit margin as well as stock performance, as the stock remains sensitive to commodities fluctuations.