BSR – Brief – [NONRATED] – 3Q25: Higher volume and margins as expected

• BSR recorded 3Q25 revenue of VND35.3tn (+10% yoy, 99% of KIS forecast), despite lower oil prices, thanks to a solid 13% yoy increase in volume (figure 1, 2). Gross profit and NPAT turned positive from last year’s loss, driven by improved refining margins (figure 3, 4), reaching VND1.01tn (94% of forecast, figure 5) and VND909bn (99% of forecast, figure 7), respectively. Consolidated GPM reached 2.9% (+7.5%p yoy, +0.1%p qoq).
• Diesel: Revenue surged 20% yoy to VND14.8tn, thanks to a sharp increase in volume. Gross profit reached VND1.62tn, translating to a GPM of 11% (+11%p yoy, +5%p qoq), supported by a higher Diesel refining margin of USD17.7/bbl (+35% yoy, +29% qoq).
• Gasoline: Revenue rose 5% yoy to VND14.3tn, as volume growth offset weaker ASPs. The gasoline margin reached USD9.8/bbl (+53% yoy, -9% qoq), still insufficient to deliver positive gross profit. Gasoline products recorded a gross loss of VND594bn (vs. -VND1.24tn in 3Q24).
• Jet A1: Revenue was stable at VND2.29tn on slightly higher volume. Gross profit jumped 108% yoy to VND399bn, with a healthy GPM of 14.7% (+7.7%p yoy, +2.9%p qoq), thanks to a strong rise in Jet A1 margin to USD25.7/bbl (+69% yoy).

4Q25F: sustaining growth amid favorable crack spreads

• As of mid-Nov, refining margins across key products continued to strengthen, nearing the 2022 peak levels — a clear tailwind for BSR given its commodity exposure.
• In 4Q25, we expect revenue to remain flat or slightly decline due to limited room for further volume increase, but gross profit could rise 4–6x yoy on significantly higher refining margins. NPAT is expected to stay at least on par with 3Q25 (vs. a net loss of VND83bn in 4Q24).